Taiwanese Independence

This is in response to the following essembly resolve: "We should support a democratic Taiwan's independence against a totalitarian China." I respect what's Taiwan managed to accomplish through democracy, legislative scuffles aside, and recognize that Taiwan is, de facto, independent (given that Taiwan once claimed to speak for the mainland, you could say that the mainland is independent), but I have to disagree that the US should support a formal independence movement.

I mean, why should we? In practice, the mainland does not interfere in Taiwanese domestic politics. Meanwhile, business is good. There's an occasional crisis over the strait, but by and large, things are fairly peaceful. There are, of course, problems that result from the mainland trying to speak for Taiwan -- e.g. difficulties in getting WHO assistance during the SARS crisis, no UN seat, etc. It seems possible, however, that these issues could be resolved without formally recognizing Taiwanese independence. In fact, we'd probably have better luck winning greater de facto independence if we could assure the mainland that none of these would lead to formal independence.

On the other hand, formal recognition leads to problems for everyone. I can think of three.

More on the flip.

1) This is bad for Taiwan. Best case scenario -- the mainland cuts off all trade with Taiwan. Given how Taiwan's economy is increasingly dependent on investment and trade with the mainland, this would be an economic disaster. Worst case scenario -- Taiwan gets blown to bits. That's why at least half of Taiwan's populace is still reluctant to call for independence.

2) This is bad for democracy movements in China. The last thing they need is American intervention over Taiwan sparking greater nationalism on the mainland.

3) This is bad for America. It puts our economic interests at risk, kills any chance of the Chinese helping us out with problems such as terrorism or North Korea, ties up military resources, and in the worst case scenario, gets us involved in a war more costly than Iraq.

In short, independence now risks a lot of bad things while there's nothing seriously wrong with the status quo. Even if you absolutely had to have independence for whatever ethnic or nationalistic nonsense you adhere to, there's no good reason why you have to have it now. The mainland is modernizing and liberalizing. Diplomatic ambiguity is a small cost to pay for waiting around until the mainland is a little more accepting of the possibility of Taiwanese independence.

I'm little short on time to find data to link to, so if you feel like finding the exact percentage of Taiwanese trade dependent on the good graces of the mainland, feel free to drop me a line.

[tag]China[/tag] [tag]American Foreign Policy[/tag] [tag]Taiwan[/tag] [tag]Essembly[/tag]